| 생산성을 고려한 치과의사의 공급 추계와 적정성 |
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손세호1, 조현재2, 김현덕3 |
1서울대학교 경제학부 학사과정
2서울대학교 치의학대학원 예방 및 사회치학교실
3서울대학교 치의학대학원 예방 및 사회치학교실 |
| Estimation and adequacy of dentist supply through the dental care productivity |
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Se-Ho Son1, Hyun-Jae Cho2, Hyun-Duck Kim3 |
1Seoul National University, Department of Economics
2Seoul National University School of Dentistry, Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry
3Seoul National University School of Dentistry, Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry |
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| Abstract |
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Running title: Adequacy of dentist supply Objectives: The proper provision of dentists is very important for delivering the dental care that people need. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the adequacy of dentist supply and to predict the proper supply of dentists in Korea for the next 10 years. Methods and materials: Using the data from 2004 to 2017 in the Statictics Korea, the dental needs were measured as days of admission and the annual total dental care hours in 2020, 2023, 2026 and 2030 were predticted using regression analysis. The dental care productivity (average in-office hours) of dentists was analyzed using regression analysis including age, gender, education level and region as a confounder. The annual care hours were predicted according to seven scenarios based on the percentage of women among dentists, post-dentist education levels, the percentage of dentists in the metropolitan area, aging and retirement age. Results: The needed dentist based on the data in the Statictics Korea will be 27, 288 ~ 27, 311 in 2020, 28,104 ~ 28,1785 in 2023, 28,977 ~ 29,124 in 2026, and 30,174 ~ 30,413 in 2030. On the other hand, the number of dentists in Korea will be 26,945 in 2020, 28,813 in 2023, 30,682 in 2026 and 33,173 in 2030. The adequacy index of dentist supply will be -0.01 in 2020 to +0.10 in 2030. Conclusions: Our data showed that dentists will be adequately supplied in Korea for the next 10 years. Overall, the ratio between dentist versus 1,000 Koreans will be increased from 0.5 in 2019 to 0.7 in 2020, which will meet the mean of OECD countries. |
| Key Words:
dentist supply;productivity;estimation;adequacy; |
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